Don't panic! The sheep are safe!
- Susan Harris
- Jun 26
- 3 min read
Panicked propaganda that carbon forestry is taking over productive farm land and destroying the beef and sheep sector continues at pace in various media outlets, especially on social media. Sheep, apparently, are in special danger from aggressive pine trees grown for carbon credits.
Fortunately we have the latest Orme & Associates 2025 update of its report to Beef and Lamb New Zealand: "Land-use change from pastoral farming to large-scale forestry Update May 2025". The report should be of comfort to insecure sheep. Its summary shows that conversions of pastoral land to carbon forestry from 2022-2024 have actually reduced 78%.
The recent propaganda again misreporting Orme's findings misleads the public and politicians by implying that carbon forestry has taken 300,000 hectares of farmland out of production over the past eight years. However, Orme's 2025 report shows us that for the full calendar years 2017-2024, commercial forestry conversions (28.1%) and forestry conversions for overseas buyers (40.5%) dominate the statistics. Honey production is 6.5% and carbon forestry 24.9%.
This proves that anxiety about farm conversions should be directed to the Government's policy settings for the Overseas Investment Office, not to the domestic commercial and carbon forestry sector.
The carbon forestry 2022 Q2 (pro-rata Q3 and Q4 as for Q1 and Q2) figures from Orme's 2022 report came to around 13,124 ha/year, very close to MPI’s registered Post-1989 forest 14,000 ha/year at that time. The Orme's 2025 report updates that figure to 9,308 ha/year (using full years 2017-2024), a 71% reduction over eight years.
However, this conversion rate is well below the replacement rate of about 40,000 ha per year of new carbon forestry needed to replace averaging pine forests that will exit the NZETS after their 16th year. Without replacements, carbon credit supply to the NZETS will drop precipitously in about 8-10 years time (Blog article: NZ's carbon debt going up $3 million per day), possibly sooner (MPI Forestry won't tell).
If carbon forestry expansion continues at 9,308 hectares per year, it will occupy all 13.1 million hectares of New Zealand farms in about 1,407 years (Stats NZ 2025). Obviously such a prospect is completely absurd.
Sheep numbers in New Zealand were reducing long before carbon forestry came along in 2008.
The removal of government subsidies in the 1980's started the downward trend, exacerbated by reduced access to European markets (now open in trade deals provided New Zealand keeps to its climate commitments), and the industry failing to respond effectively to challenges presented by the new synthetic fibre industry.
It remains completely inane to proclaim that carbon forestry is taking over good farming country, threatening sheep, emptying schools, and significantly reducing food production. Rather, tightening carbon forestry rules without considering future carbon credit supply as averaging forests go off-line may create a crisis of credit supply to the NZETS, especially if the Government needs domestic credits to cover the 84 million tonne emissions gap it has for its Paris Climate Agreement 2030 target.
So don't panic! The sheep are safe! In fact, finally the industry has realized that we are no longer selling greasy wool to a war-torn UK, and is transiting to prestige wealthy markets which highly value truly natural products. "Sheep futures" are in promoting high end luxury wool items like the Nordic Socks I just bought at great expense. Long may the production of these beautiful natural products continue whilst carbon forest on the really tough country prevents erosion and generates clean water and carbon credit income. Sheep and beef meat returns are up because meat sellers have positioned themselves well in the international markets.
There are also solar energy income options for farmers where sheep may safely graze underneath solar panels. Wise planning, not misplaced hysteria, creates plenty of room for multiple income streams on farm. This is the 21st Century after all.
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