Good on you, Winston Peters, for dropping the "truth bomb" on climate change action at UN meeting

United Nations Headquarters, New York, USA

New Zealand's Foreign Minister calls out four major emitters on failure to take real climate action

Yesterday New Zealand time, at a UN climate change breakfast meeting in New York to discuss the threats posed by rising sea levels, New Zealand's Foreign Minister Winston Peters dropped what the World Bank Governor Valerie Hickey called a "truth bomb" by saying:

"Four countries comprise 60 percent of the world's emissions, and the rest of the 191 countries... are wrestling with this problem. We have to face the fact, deal with it - we're in a battle we can't possibly win."

Previously Mr Peters had pointed out that China, Russia, India and the USA hadn't taken meaningful action to reduce emissions and the problem couldn't be resolved without them.

 

'Big Four' emissions compared to the rest of us

Figure 1 shows how the 'Big Four' emissions compare to the rest of us. New Zealand is shown (only just!) for comparison. (Mt pa means millions of tonnes per annum.) Note China's prominence.

Figure 1: Big Four Emissions Compared to Rest of the World | Source: Our World in Data 2025

Huge jump in greenhouse gas emissions since 1750

The next diagram gives us historical context for the growth in greenhouse gas emissions.

Figure 2: Historical Growth in Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Global emissions went from 9.3 Mt p.a. in 1750 to 37,791.6 Mt p.a. in 2023, a 406,002% increase.

Sources of Emissions

Looking at sources of emissions, we see that the USA was the leading source up until 2006 when China overtook it, absolutely rocketing up since, while USA emissions have decreased. Russia has also dropped, with India overtaking Russia in 2010. China's emissions have increased 83% from 6.49 billion tonnes p.a. in 2006 to 11.9 billion tonnes p.a. in 2023. China now emitting 31.5% of total world carbon dioxide emissions.

Figure 3: Comparative Growth and Decrease in Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Emissions per capita (per person) paint a different picture, Figure 4.

Figure 4: Emissions per Capita

In terms of emissions trends, the following changes are notable per capita:

Source: Our World in Data 2025

In the first 23 years of the 21st Century, China, India and Russia have increased per capita emissions significantly, whereas the USA and New Zealand have decreased them. Emission increases are probably the result of fossil fuel-powered industrialisation, whilst decreases are probably related to emission reduction projects and the adoption of clean energy technologies.

Key points for the future

• Global Context - remembering that it is not emissions per capita that count, it is the absolute amount of emissions released globally that determine the planet's response to additional warming pressure. More emissions force increasing heat, changes in weather patterns, drought, floods, higher cyclone strength and frequency, sea level rise, and lowering of the pH (increasing acidity) of the sea.

  
  

• China dominates global emisisons - in the 21st Century, China is having by far the biggest impact on global climate. China is aware of this, and at yesterday's UN meeting committed to reducing emissions a net 7-10% from peak levels, increasing non-fossil fuel energy sources to over 30%, with President Xi Jinping stating that the "green and low carbon transition is the trend of our time". China is known for over-achieving its stated targets in other areas of policy, and with its leading position as a clean energy technology developer it will be interesting to see how it goes in reducing absolute emissions (tonnes per annum) and emission intensity (emissions per product unit).

  
  

• USA's withdrawal from Paris Climate Agreement may not be so troubling if its downward emission trend, both in absolute and intensity terms, continue at the current or increasing pace. This is probably because clean energy is now much cheaper, safer, healthier, and faster to install than dirty energy.

  
  

• Russia and India's greenhouse gas profiles are problematic because of the large quantity of emissions they produce from fossil fuel-dominated energy sources. Russia's commitment relies on the absorptive capacity of Russia's vast forests and other ecosystems. There is no Russian commitment to transit to clean energy. India may do better, as it has committed to achieving 50% of clean energy capacity and to developing a significant carbon sink equivalent to 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030. However, these are ambitious targets to be reached in only four years' time.

  
  

• New Zealand is not doing so well, because although it has reduced its emissions per capita, what really counts is absolute reduction by percentage. New Zealand's emissions have reduced only 6.6% in the 23 years since 2000 (that's 0.287% p.a.) We need to have a stronger track record by percentage achievement, and then Winston could really thunder from the podium. But well done sir, a timely reality check for them all.

Author:

Susan Harris BSc(Hons), MEIANZ, MNZPI

Chief Executive Officer, GreenXperts Limited

phone: +64 22 1544 958 | email: susan.harris@greenxperts.co.nz

Susan is a recognised world authority on sustainability, a former Environment Commissioner, with 30 years' experience as a science team leader. Susan operates the Global GreenXperts Network, with projects focusing on sustainability, certification, the NZETS, carbon, and climate change management advice in Australasia, the UK, EU, India, and most recently in Africa developing and authenticating sources of high integrity voluntary carbon credits.